Saamaynta El Niño ee 2026–2027: Khatarta Barakacayaasha iyo Diyaargarowga Hawlgallada
Dhacdada El Niño ee la saadaaliyay inay xooggan tahay 2026 iyo 2027 waxay u badan tahay inay saameyn weyn ku yeelato dadka barakacayaasha ah oo ay kicin karto barakac dheeraad ah. Khataraha dabiiciga ah ee cimiladu keento waxay celcelis ahaan barakaciyaan 22 milyan sanad kasta. Barakacayaasha badankoodu gabaad yar ayaa laga helaa marka cimiladu xumaato.
Falanqaynta DRC ee Baahsan ee Wadamada Ay Ka Shaqayso
DRC waxay falanqaysay xogta saadaasha cimilada, khatarta iyo dhaqdhaqaaqa dadweynaha ee waddamo ay ka shaqayso, oo ay ku jiraan Soomaaliya, Itoobiya, Kiiniya, Kolombiya, Venezuela, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali iyo Suuriya. Ujeedadu waa ogaanshaha aagagga laga baahan yahay kormeer dhow, iyadoo aan la saadaalin wax saameyn gaar ah.
Falanqaynta DRC waxay xiriir ka dhex tayey isbeddellada sanadlaha ah ee barakaca iyo wejiga El Niño; si kastaba ha ahaatee xog dheeraad ah ayaa loo baahan yahay si loo xaqiijiyo mala-awaalkaas. Tani waxay muujinaysaa baahida loo qabo daraasad qoto dheer oo ku salaysan xogta dheeraadka ah.
Aagagga Ugu Khatarta Badan ee Soomaaliya iyo Bariga Afrika
Soomaaliya, qiyaastii 2.3 milyan ayaa ugu khatarta badan daadadka marinnada webiyada Juba iyo Shabelle, iyo aagagga magaalooyinka iyo agagaarkooda ee Muqdisho, iyadoo barakacayaasha gabaadka jilicsan ku sugan ay si gaar ah ugu nugul yihiin. Tani waxay muujinaysaa baahida degdeg ah ee ilaalinta.
Itoobiya waxaa la saadaaliyay qalalaaso iyo qoyaan, iyadoo qiyaastii 320,000 oo qof ay ku sugan yihiin Gobolka Soomaalida khatar weyn ugu jiraan daadadka. Kiiniya, in kabadan 500,000 ayaa laga aqoonsaday aagagga daadadka webiyada, oo ay kujiraan xeebaha, Tana, Garissa, Dadaab, Mandera iyo Wajir.
Diyaargarowga Kooxaha DRC ee Saameynta El Niño
Kooxaha DRC ee dhulka ku sugan waxay habaynayaan barnaamijyadooda si ay ula qabsadaan saameynta la filayo ee El Niño; waxay xoojinayaan nidaamyada diyaargarowga iyo ficilka saadaasha, iyagoo maalgelin degdeg ah ku bixinaya qorshayaasha degdegga iyo kuwa ficilka saadaasha fudud.
Macluumaad dheeraad ah oo ku saabsan jawaabta DRC ee El Niño waxaa laga heli doonaa Qorshaha Caalamiga ah ee Jawaabta El Niño ee la imanaya. Tani waxay qayb ka tahay habka dabacsan ee ururku ugu diyaar garoobayo marka loo eego kalsoonida saadaasha iyo awoodda qaranka.
DRC analysis maps exposure in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and beyond as agencies prepare anticipatory response
The strong forecasted El Niño event in 2026 and 2027 is likely to significantly affect displaced people and may drive further displacement. Climate hazards already displace an average of 22 million people yearly, many in protracted displacement with limited shelter protection.
Regional Exposure Identified in DRC Analysis
DRC analysed weather, exposure and mobility data across Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Colombia, Venezuela, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Syria to locate at-risk displaced populations. In Somalia, around 2.3 million face flood exposure in Juba and Shabelle corridors and Mogadishu peripheries, with IDPs in fragile shelters especially vulnerable.
Ethiopia may see northeast dryness and southern wetness, with about 320,000 at flood risk in the Somali Region. Kenya has over 500,000 in river-flood zones including Tana and Dadaab. Colombia hosts 7.2 million IDPs where dryness may worsen water, food and health pressures in La Guajira.
Mixed Sahel and Syria Forecasts Raise Concern
Sahel forecasts show possible drought and localized floods, with hotspots in Burkina Faso's Boucle du Mouhoun, Mali's Inner Niger Delta and Niger's Yobe basin. Venezuela's drier season may worsen conditions in Maracaibo and Caracas for displacement-affected populations.
In Syria, a wetter late-2026 season may severely affect Al-Hasakeh and northwest camps where shelter conditions amplify rainfall impact. DRC finds a link between displacement changes and El Niño phase, but further data is needed to validate this hypothesis.
Operational Preparedness Underway
DRC teams are adapting programmes to anticipated El Niño impacts and strengthening preparedness and anticipatory action systems. Rapid investment is being made in emergency plans and simplified anticipatory action to respond where forecast confidence and national capacity allow.
Further details on DRC's El Niño response will follow in a forthcoming Global El Niño Response Plan. The organisation applies a flexible approach shaped by differing exposure, systems and resources across the contexts where it operates.
