Roobabkii July ee Nepal oo kordhiyay beerista bariiska oo taageeray dakhliga qoysaska

Warbixin cusub oo ku saabsan cunnada iyo beeraha Nepal, July 2026 - January 2027

Roobabkii July ayaa suurtagaliyay in in ka badan 90 boqolkiiba bartilmaameedka beerista bariiska la dhammaystiro dabayaaqadii July, taasoo ka sarraysa heerka sanadka hore. Gobolka Madhesh wuxuu dhaafiyay heerka la midka ahaa sanadkii hore in ka badan 30 boqolkiiba.

Roobka iyo Beeraha Bariiska

Roobabkii June-September waa ku dhowaaq celcelis ilaa hadda, inkastoo bilowgii June uu dib dhacay oo July uu ahaa mid ka sarreeya celceliska. Roobkii July wuxuu ku filnaa beerista, wuxuuna taageeray helitaanka cunnada iyo dakhliga shaqada beeraha.

Dhammaadkii July, beerista bariiska waxay ku sigatay dhammaystirka iyadoo in ka badan 90 boqolkiiba bartilmaameedka la gaaray, taasoo ka sarraysa heerka isla xilligan sanadkii hore. Gobolka ugu weyn ee bariiska, Madhesh, wuxuu dhaafiyay heerka la midka ahaa sanadkii hore in ka badan 30 boqolkiiba.

Amniga Cunnada iyo Socdaalka

Natiijooyin u dhigma Stressed (IPC Phase 2) ayaa u badan inay sii jiraan Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini, Karnali iyo Sudurpaschim, iyadoo qoysas badan ay gaarayaan Crisis (IPC Phase 3) buuraha ilaa September. Qoysasku waxay dabadeed buuxinayaan baahidooda suuqa.

Dakhli hoos u dhacay oo yarsagumba ah ayaa kiciyaa cunto-yaraynta waqooyiga buuraha. Si loo wajaho khasaaraha, socdaal shaqo oo aan caadi ahayn oo loo aado India ayaa u badan inuu dhaco dabayaaqada dabbaaldegga bartamihii November.

Qiimayaasha iyo Dhoofinta Shaaha

Bishii July, qiimayaasha cunnada ayaa sareysnaa sababtoo ah kharashka xamuulka ee dowladdii kordhisay April 2026, inkastoo shidaalku hoos u dhacay. Bariiska, burka, digirta iyo saliidda waxay ka sarreeyaan celceliska shan sano 7 ilaa 15 boqolkiiba.

Dhoofinta shaaha ee India ayaa dib u bilaabatay, taasoo shaqada siiyay shaqaalaha Koshi. Wadar dhoofinta sanadka ah waxay hoos u dhacday 12.57 milyan tan ilaa bartamihii July 2026, laakiin July waxaa la filayaa 1.5 milyan tan.

Nepal's July monsoon rains have enabled farmers to complete over 90 percent of their rice planting target, surpassing last year's levels, though localized deficits persist in Koshi, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces. While food security is expected to improve countrywide by October, Stressed outcomes remain likely in several provinces through September.

Monsoon Rainfall and Agricultural Progress

The June-September monsoon rainfall is generally average thus far, though delayed onset in June was followed by above-average levels in July. Localized below-average rainfall has been recorded in Koshi, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces, with deficits of up to 100 millimeters. Despite the late arrival, July rainfall is sufficient for planting, allowing farmers to overcome earlier delays in rainfed areas.

According to the Department of Agriculture, as of late July, rice planting is nearing completion with over 90 percent of the target, which is above planting levels at the same time last year. The main rice-growing province, Madhesh, has surpassed planting levels as of the same time last year by over 30 percent, supporting access to food and income from agricultural labor.

Food Security Outlook and Livelihood Challenges

Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will most likely persist in areas of Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim provinces, with an increasing number of households expected to experience outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across high mountain districts through September as the lean season peaks from July to September. Households are expected to meet their food needs through market purchases with sufficient income until the harvest begins in September.

However, below-average income from reduced yarsagumba (Caterpillar fungus) yields is driving an increasing share of the population facing food consumption deficits in the northern mountains. To cope with the income loss, atypically high and early migration to India for labor work is likely to occur immediately following the festival season in mid-November.

Market Prices, Landslides, and Trade Resumption

In July, food prices remained elevated due to persistently high freight costs increased by the government in April 2026, despite reduced fuel prices. The prices of most major staples in July were similar to those in June, but rice, wheat flour, beans, and cooking oil prices are 7 to 15 percent higher compared to the five-year average price. Red potato prices increased by over 5 percent between June and July, associated with the depletion of the winter season harvest.

Localized landslides, including along the Karnali Highway in late July, have occurred due to the favorable monsoon in July. The current scale of landslides is typical for the time of year and is not expected to significantly impact the movement of goods and people. Meanwhile, tea exports to India have resumed, with a total export volume expected at around 1.5 million metric tons for July, supporting income for laborers and tea growers.