Ambassador hore ee Australia ee Shiinaha: Xiriirka Canberra iyo Beijing waa mid daciif ah oo halis ah

Graham Fletcher oo ka digaya in xiriirka uu mar kale hoos u dhaco

Graham Fletcher, oo ahaa danjiraha hore ee Australia ee Shiinaha, ayaa sheegay in xiriirka labada dal uu yahay mid jilicsan oo u nugul shoogag, isagoo xusay in xasilloonidu ay Canberra ku ahaan doonto 'hadaf, ee aan la hubin'. Waxa uu sidoo kale ka digay khatarta dib-u-dhac kale.

Doorka Fletcher iyo aragtidiisa xiriirka

Graham Fletcher wuxuu danjire ka noqday Shiinaha sanadkii 2019, wax yar ka hor inta uusan xiriirku qalalaase noqon, ka dib markii dowladdii Morrison ay codsatay baaritaan madax-banaan oo ku saabsan COVID-19 ee Shiinaha, wuxuuna ka caawiyay 'xasilinta' xiriirka markii shaqada la wareegtay 2022.

Fletcher wuxuu ku sheegay warbixin uu u diyaariyay Lowy Institute in dowladddu ay u badan tahay inay u aragto 'heerka cusub ee dhexdhexaadka ah' inuu yahay 'ku filan', waxaana si xambaarsan u diiday dadaallada Shiinaha ee ah in la balaadhiyo iskaashiga kaabayaasha iyo sirdoonka macmalka ah.

Kala duwanaanshaha aragtiyada iyo khatarta

Fletcher wuxuu qabaa in Shiinaha iyo Australia aysan waligood u dhowaanayn sababtoo ah waxay leeyihiin aragtiyo aad u kala duwan oo ku saabsan sida gobolku u shaqeeyo. Warbixintu waxay qortay: 'The gulf in terms of diverging world views and national security agendas is simply too wide.'

Wuxuu darnaa in 'mismatch of world views and strategic agendas' uu mar walba ka dhigi doono xiriirka mid 'vulnerable to future disruption'. Wuxuu intaa ku daray in khatar jirto oo ah in xiriirku uu galaan hoos-u-dhac haddii ay jiraan 'accumulation of serious disagreements that cannot be successfully managed'.

Arrimo suurtagal ah oo khilaaf abuuri kara

Fletcher wuxuu sheegay in isku dayga dowladda ee ah in ay dib u gacan geliso Dekadda Darwin ay dhibaato keeni karto, isagoo xusay in 'Canberra's decision to return the Port of Darwin to Australian ownership faces dogged resistance and may well be conflated with US moves to exclude Chinese interests from the Panama Canal ports.'

Wuxuu kaloo sheegay in 'Beijing is increasingly prickly' ka dhanka ah xannibaadaha EU iyo US, iyo in 'unrest or a political crisis in the Pacific Islands could sharpen the ongoing contest for influence there'. Wuxuu xusay in Taiwan ay tahay 'possibility' laakiin aanay ahayn 'strong risk' hadda.

Australia's former ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher, has warned that the bilateral relationship remains fragile and could spiral into another crisis if serious disagreements accumulate beyond the government's ability to manage them.

A 'Modest New Normal' That Canberra Accepts as Good Enough

In a new report for the Lowy Institute, Mr Fletcher said the government likely saw the 'modest new normal' in the relationship as 'good enough' and had quietly rebuffed efforts by China to expand cooperation on infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

He said that was partly because China's campaign of economic coercion demonstrated to Canberra that 'any leverage China believes it possesses is liable to be exploited at times of political need', which meant it was 'prudent not to allow such leverage to accumulate'.

Diverging World Views Make Closer Ties Pointless

The former ambassador said China and Australia would never be close because they had such radically different visions of how the region should operate.

'The gulf in terms of diverging world views and national security agendas is simply too wide,' the report reads. 'It would be pointless for Canberra to pursue such a goal; it recognises this and is realistic.'

Specific Flashpoints Could Trigger Another Downward Spiral

He said there was still a risk that the relationship could enter another downward spiral if there was an 'accumulation of serious disagreements that cannot be successfully managed', saying the government's attempts to wrestle back control of the Port of Darwin from a Chinese owner could spark trouble.

'Beijing is increasingly prickly, for example, about EU and US security-driven restrictions on its technology and investment and is developing mechanisms to push back that could be applied globally,' he said.