Senators demand crackdown on wildfire “prediction market” bets
Several US senators have written a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency’s “plans to crack down on prediction markets” that offer “contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.”
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“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit,” wrote the group of senators, who represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
The document specifically cites that Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website that specifically accepts “simulated bets” exclusively on California wildfires.
“There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the letter continues. “By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
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The public letter, which was issued Monday, comes as active wildfires continue to burn in significant parts of the Pacific Northwest. On Tuesday, the Spokane County Sheriff’s Office announced the arrest of an arson suspect who is believed to have started one of the blazes currently threatening Spokane, Washington, and the surrounding area. Several hundred buildings have already been destroyed, and approximately one-quarter of the city’s population has recently been ordered to evacuate.
The CFTC did not immediately respond to Ars’ request for comment.
Kalshi is one of the major prediction markets. Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told Ars by email that the company does not allow such wildfire markets “because they create perverse incentives.”
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