23-kii September, dagaal weyn oo cusub ayaa ka dhacay gobolka Tigray ee Itoobiya, iyadoo ciidamada Tigray ay saddex garoon oo deegaan ah ku qabsadeen, halkaas oo dagaalku uga faafay gobollada Afar iyo Amhara, taasoo xadgudub ku noqotay heshiiska Nabad-nimo ee Pretoria 2022.
Xaaladda dagaalka iyo khilaafka
Labada dhinac ayaa isku eedeeyay inay dagaalka bilaabeen, iyadoo TPLF ay sheegtay in ciidamada federaalka ay horay u weerareen, halka Addis Ababa ay sheegtay in TPLF ay weerarka bilaabatay. Dagaalkani wuxuu muujiyay in heshiiska Pretoria uu ku dhacay.
21-kii September, afar iyo toban rux oo ciidan iyo siyaasadeed ayaa isku bixiyay inay dowladda Ra'iisul Wasaare Abiy Ahmed ka saaraan, iyadoo xubnaha ka midka ah ay ku jiraan TPLF, Fano iyo Ciidamada Nabadgelyada Oromada.
Maxay muhiim u tahay Eritrea?
Eritrea waxay leedahay dhinac badda oo ka dhaw Badda Bab el-Mandeb, halkaas oo ah meel muhiim u ah ganacsiga adduunka. Xilligan, dagaalka Iran iyo xaaladda Red Sea waxay Eritrea u dhigteen mid muhiim u ah amniga adduunka.
Madaxweynaha Mareykanka Donald Trump wuxuu ku dhawaaqay inuu ka qaadayo xad-dhaafka Eritrea, inkastoo aan la sheegin inay heshiis la gashay Madaxweyne Isaias Afwerki. Tani waxay muhiim u tahay in la ilaaliyo Red Sea.
Khataraha iyo horumarka
Eritrea waxay ahayd dowlad dhaq-dhaqaaq leh, iyadoo aan doorasho la qabanin tan iyo 1993, waxaana jira xiriirka ciidamadeeda iyo dowladda federaalka Itoobiya. Haddii dagaalku sii kordho, Eritrea waxay noqon kartaa mid ka qayb qaadata dagaalka.
Martin Plaut wuxuu sheegay in xaaladdu ay noqon karto mid 'dhibaato weyn' u ah adduunka, inkastoo uu sheegay in dagaalka gobolka aysan noqon doonin mid dhaqaale ah, balse ay tahay mid amni.
Fighting has escalated dramatically in Ethiopia's Tigray region, threatening the 2022 Pretoria peace deal and raising fears of a broader regional war involving Eritrea.
A Staggering Coincidence of Timing
On September 23, Tigrayan forces seized three local airports and fighting spread into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. Both sides accuse the other of starting the escalation, casting doubt on the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement.
Just five days earlier, on September 18, the United States allowed the national emergency underpinning its Ethiopia-related sanctions regime to expire. The Treasury Department subsequently removed a number of Eritrean individuals and entities from its sanctions list, including senior financial official Hagos Ghebrehiwet and the Red Sea Trading Corporation.
The Geopolitical Calculus
British journalist Martin Plaut argues that the US needs Eritrea in the struggle to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis. He noted that Trump has now mended fences with Eritrea and has lifted sanctions against Eritrea in an effort to reduce the threat posed by the Houthis and secure the Red Sea.
Moses Okello, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, said the entire Middle East is up in flames, and now the tensions in the Red Sea. So this changes the strategic value of not just the Eritrean coast, but the entire Red Sea waterway.
Ethiopia Heads Back Towards War
On September 21, seven Ethiopian armed and political groups announced an alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army.
Two days later, fighting escalated in Tigray. The TPLF says federal forces attacked first; Addis Ababa says the TPLF launched the offensive. Plaut warned that one conflict could lead into another, as the UAE backs the RSF and the Saudis back the Eritreans and the Sudanese Armed Forces.
Ilaha iyo xuquuqda sawirka
Sawir: DW World Xigasho
